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Risk is a situation wherein the probability distribution of the values a variable can take is known, even though the exact value it takes cannot be known with certainty. But in an uncertain situation an experienced executive can have a feel about the range of values a variable can take along with their chances of occurrence. These subjective feelings can be translated into probability values. These probabilities are called “subjective probabilities”. It is permissible to use subjective probabilities in situations wherein no objective probabilities are readily available. Risk Analysis in investment decisions involve the various risks associated with each type of security. Uncertainty could be managed by two ways first, by employing some modern quantitative techniques such as system analysis, operations research, marketing research, network analysis etc., which could make the estimates for the appraisal more realistic and second, by applying some technique for handling risk at capital investment appraisal stage.

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Some of the topics covered under Risk Analysis:

1. Meaning of Risk
2. Factors for uncertainty
3. Risk-free, Risk-premium, Beta and CAPM.
4. Techniques of Risk Analysis
a. Conservative methods –
i. Shorter pay-back period
ii. Risk adjusted discount rate
iii. Conservative forecasts of certainty equivalents
b. Modern methods
i. sensitivity analysis
ii. Probability analysis
iii. Decision tree analysis
5. Calculation of effect of changes in variables

Risk analysis is based on the concept of: higher the risk, higher the premium; lower the risk, lower the premium. An investment in common stock is riskier, as the question of dividend payments arise only after the payment of interest and dividends to debenture holders and preference share holders. But, if the company makes ample profits, equity shareholders would get more dividend than the debenture holders and preference share holders whose rates of returns are fixed. Hence, higher the risk, higher the returns and lower the risk, lower the returns. Learn about the various risks and returns and its equilibrium thoroughly from www.theglobaltutors.com.

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